Study Analyzes “Wisdom of the Crowd”
A four-year study to investigate the effectiveness of crowdsourcing in prediction making is underway by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (IARPA). The study involves four teams from universities around the countries.
Each team is taking a different approach to prediction to study how crowdsourcing can best be used. Universities receive grant money for their efforts— those who stay engaged for the four-year duration earn more.
For example, in one group participants supply information about their education and what areas they have expertise in so analysts can break down the variables that influence a forecaster’s prediction, and use the data in a way that people with disparate knowledge bases can help guide each other to the most accurate forecast. Participants who make accurate predictions are rewarded with a point system, and there is a leaderboard of sorts for participants to measure their success.
Another team answers questions designed to minimize experts’ overconfidence and misjudgment. “Small wording changes in a question can have a huge effect’’ on how a person answers,” says a project leader.
IARPA spokeswoman Cherreka Montgomery said the project’s goal is to develop methods to refine and improve on crowdsourcing in a way that would be useful to intelligence analysts. “It’s all about strengthening the capabilities of our intelligence analysts,’’Montgomerysaid. If analysts can use crowdsourcing to better determine the likelihood of seemingly unpredictable world events, those analysts can help policymakers be prepared and develop smarter responses.
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